November 9th, 2006 3:47 PM
2nd District candidates wait for provisional ballot count
By Dan Horn / Cincinnati Enquirer
Victoria Wulsin says she's down but not out of the race in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District. The Democrat refused to concede defeat to incumbent Jean Schmidt on Wednesday, saying she would wait until thousands of provisional ballots were counted before declaring the tight race over.
"There should be no rush to name a victor," said Wulsin spokesman Ady Barkan. "It's more important to name the right victor."
Schmidt's backers say that happened Tuesday night, when their candidate tallied 2,323 more votes than Wulsin, giving Schmidt 50.51 percent of the total. Schmidt declared victory late Tuesday.
"She should make it easier on herself and concede," said Matt Perin, a spokesman for Schmidt. "We won. It's over."
Both sides now are bracing for a weeks-long process that could attract national attention as Democrats try to bolster their lead in the House.
And Republicans will keep on fighting.
A prolonged battle in the 2nd District - including a potential recount - also could draw a few party lawyers from Columbus and Washington.
"Both sides are interested in keeping as many seats as they possibly can," said Tim Burke, chairman of the Hamilton County Democratic Party. "I'm sure there will be a lot of very skilled lawyers looking at these issues."
Burke said Wulsin is doing the right thing by waiting for election officials to count all of the provisional ballots, which are given to voters when there is a question about their residency or eligibility to vote.
But Burke described Wulsin's chances of winning only as "theoretical." He said 2,323 votes can be a lot to overcome, even in a race that saw 225,541 ballots cast.
About 12,700 provisional ballots were cast in Hamilton County and 35 percent of those, or about 4,400, are expected to come from 2nd District precincts in the eastern part of the county. Several thousand more are likely to come from precincts in other Southwest Ohio counties covered by the 2nd District, including Clermont and Warren counties.
To win, Wulsin would need to claim a much higher percentage of the provisional votes than the 49.49 percent she took Tuesday night.
"The numbers don't work out for her," Perin said.
Gene Beaupre, a Xavier University political science professor, agreed that Wulsin faces long odds.
"It would be remarkable to make up that margin," he said. "Having said that, there's no reason for her not to try."
And try she will. Barkan said provisional ballots often are cast by voters who have moved, and that those voters are more likely to be young or poor - two factors that could tilt them to Wulsin.
"We have reason to believe these could break for us," Barkan said of the provisional ballots.
When all the votes have been counted, Wulsin could request a recount if the margin is less than 1 percent of the total ballots cast. Right now, it's slightly more than 1 percent.
Burke said a 2,000-vote lead would be much more significant once the provisional ballots are counted.
Until then, he said, Wulsin should hold off on her concession speech.
"If you get through the official count and you've still got a margin of 2,000 votes, I don't think a recount is going to change anything," Burke said. "But that's not where we are right now. We've got thousands of uncounted ballots out there."
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